Hawaii’s Economy Continues Moderate Growth

Posted on May 17, 2017 in News

For Immediate Release: May 17, 2017

HONOLULU—The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) released its second quarter 2017 Statistical and Economic Report, which shows Hawaii’s economy continues moderate growth in the coming years.

First quarter economic data are very encouraging. Labor force and employment created new record high levels during the first quarter of 2017 and non-farm payroll jobs showed a historical best first quarter. Hawaii’s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was the lowest among all the states in the nation. Visitor arrivals increased 3.1 percent and visitor expenditures jumped 10.4 percent during the quarter.

The construction industry also showed great improvement as the value of private building permits increased 66.3 percent during the first quarter of 2017. The value of residential permits increased 126.8 percent, commercial and industrial permit value increased 203.2 percent, and value of additions and alterations increased 6.1 percent. The value of government contracts awarded also surged 22.1 percent. As a measure of construction completed, the contracting tax base reached $8.3 billion in 2016, a new record year in nominal dollar terms.

“It’s encouraging to see our first quarter numbers, which signals our economy is on solid footing,” said DBEDT Director Luis P. Salaveria. “We are on track to see more than 9 million visitors this year, and we expect to see our construction industry accelerate our economic growth.”

According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s real gross domestic product (GDP), the most comprehensive measure for final goods and services produced in an economy, grew 2.1 percent in 2016, and over-performed the U.S. economic growth at 1.6 percent.

The most recent economic forecast for the U.S. and the world indicates that most of the economies of the world, especially those our visitors are coming from, will experience continued economic growth in 2017 and 2018. The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2017 and 2.4 percent in 2018, both are higher than the growth rate of 2016.

DBEDT revised its projection on Hawaii’s economic growth slightly upward for 2017, from 1.8 percent projected in the previous quarter to 1.9 percent, mainly due to the better than expected performance in the tourism industry. DBEDT kept the economic growth for outer years unchanged from the previous quarter projection at 1.7 percent for 2018 and 1.6 percent for both 2019 and 2020.

“At the beginning of the year, airline schedules indicated that we would have 0.5 percent decline in air seats this year. But by March this year, updated airline schedules indicated that there would be a 1.3 percent gain in air seats for 2017. There will be one new international route added, AirAsian X, three flights a week from Kuala Lumpur via Osaka to Honolulu, on June 28 this year,” said Chief State Economist Dr. Eugene Tian. “There will be a few new routes added from the U.S. mainland to the neighbor islands this year. The additional routes are the main reason for the revision to our visitor forecast for 2017. ”

According to DBEDT’s passenger count data, total passengers to Hawaii increased 7.7 percent in April 2017, as compared with the same month last year. Passengers on domestic flights increased 8.4 percent and passengers on international flights increased 5.6 percent.

After the record year of 2016, Hawaii’s labor force and employment continued growing and set new record levels in the first quarter of 2017 with 695,650 people in the labor force and 676,400 people employed. Statewide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) averaged at 2.8 percent during the first quarter of 2017, continued to be lower than the U.S. average unemployment rate of 4.9 percent and ranked the lowest in the nation.

DBEDT expects that the non-farm payroll job count will grow by 1.0 percent in 2017 and fall to 0.8 percent in 2020. This is a downward adjustment when comparing the forecast last quarter. The adjustment is due to the revised final data on non-farm payroll job count by the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations.

DBEDT expects that the unemployment rate will be at 2.9 percent in 2017 and will gradually increase to 3.4 percent by 2020.

DBEDT kept the nominal personal income growth rates unchanged from the previous quarter forecast in the neighborhood of 4.7 and 4.8 percent.

DBEDT increased its projection for the consumer inflation rates for 2017 to 2.5 percent, higher than the 2.4 percent projected in February this year, but lowered its inflation projection slightly for the outer years. This change is mainly based on the most recent revised inflation projections made for the U.S. by the 50 economic projection organizations. Honolulu consumer inflation rates have been above the U.S. average inflation rates since 2004, with the exception of 2014 when Honolulu consumer inflation rate was lower than the U.S. rate.

The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 120 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawaii’s economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data.

The full report is available at: dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser.

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Media Contact:

Christine Hirasa
Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
Phone: (808) 587-9006
Mobile: (808) 286-9017
Website: dbedt.hawaii.gov

ACTUAL AND FORECAST OF KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR HAWAII: 2014 TO 2019

Economic Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Forecast
Total population (thousands) 1,425 1,429 1,436 1,447 1,459 1,470
Visitor arrivals (thousands) ¹ 8,680 8,941 9,124 9,264 9,408 9,551
Visitor days (thousands) ¹ 78,620 80,383 82,181 83,292 84,613 85,928
Visitor expenditures (million dollars) ¹ 15,111 15,748 16,550 16,859 17,476 18,106
Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) 260.2 265.3 271.9 278.2 284.6 291.1
Personal income (million dollars) 69,129 72,215 75,609 79,163 82,963 86,945
Real personal income (millions of 2009$) ² 53,830 55,284 56,610 57,912 59,360 60,904
Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands) 638.6 647.6 654.1 660.0 666.6 671.9
Civilian unemployment rate ³ 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4
Gross domestic product (million dollars) 80,599 83,917 87,022 90,416 93,942 97,606
Real gross domestic product (millions of 2009$) 71,714 73,252 74,644 75,913 77,127 78,361
Gross domestic product deflator (2009=100) 112.4 114.6 116.6 119.1 121.8 124.6
Annual Percentage Change
Total population 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Visitor arrivals ¹ 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.5
Visitor days ¹ 3.5 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.6
Visitor expenditures ¹ 0.9 4.2 5.1 1.9 3.7 3.6
Honolulu CPI-U 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Personal income 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
Real personal income ² 3.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6
Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8
Civilian unemployment rate ³ -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Gross domestic product 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9
Real gross domestic product 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6
Gross domestic product deflator (2009=100) 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3

1/ Visitors who came to Hawaii by air or by cruise ship. Expenditures includes supplementary expenditures. 2016 supplementary expenditure was estimated by DBEDT.
2/ Using personal income deflator developed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and estimated by DBEDT.
3/ Absolute change from previous year.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, May 12, 2017.