Project History

Concerns about the effects of visitor growth have been persistent since the tourism boom began in the 1960s. Tourism growth slowed in the 1990s, but surged again in 2000, with a record of nearly 7 million visitors. Given the strong growth in 2000, DBEDT and the Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) began to discuss how long-term increases in the numbers of visitors would affect our tourism product and resident quality of life. It was apparent that there were no effective tools to measure and forecast the impact of tourism growth on expensive infrastructure systems such as water & sewage systems, transportation, parks, etc. Moreover, environmental groups and agencies were concerned about how tourism growth may be affecting the natural environment and the lack of tools to measure that impact.

As a result of the concerns, the 2001 Legislature authorized DBEDT to conduct a study on Hawaii’s capacity to sustain future growth in tourism. Planning for the study and selection of contractors began in early September 2001. The project was subdivided into three interrelated studies. A baseline infrastructure and environmental study began in March 2002 and was completed at the end of 2002. A modeling study of tourism and a socio-cultural/public input study followed, beginning in June 2002. The last of these studies, the modeling effort, concluded in October 2005.  A summary report of the project was prepared in December 2005 for review.  The models and other analytical tools have been delivered to the Research and Economic Analysis Division of DBEDT for further development and refinement.