Economic and Environmental Modeling Study

The Economic and Environmental Modeling Study applied state-of-the-art economic modeling and other techniques to simulate conditions of tourism development and population growth through time, and identify the impact of this growth on key infrastructure, environmental and quality of life measures for various economic sectors and geographical areas.

The goal of this component was to develop analytical tools that can measure the many impacts of tourism growth on the State and counties and also suggest policy strategies to mitigate negative impacts. Among the major tasks of this component were to:

  • Create a series of linked models to analyze the impact that changes in the level and composition of tourism have on Hawaii’s economy, quality of life, infrastructure and environment.
  • Develop long-term simulations of the probable impact on the economy and infrastructure resulting from changes in the growth and composition of tourism as well as resident and economic growth outside of tourism. These simulations started with the most likely future scenario and then explored how impacts would be different under alternative growth scenarios. The simulations identifed key pressure or trigger points where infrastructure limits need to be addressed.
  • Provide recommendations that could address the potential impacts of the various scenarios.

To accomplish these goals the modeling team broke new ground in the fields of economic modeling and geographical analysis. The primary model is a computerized general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model more closely approximates the way the real economy reacts to changes in supply, demand and prices. A major secondary modeling innovation was the development of a geographical allocation model that can translate projections of tourism-driven economic activity into the demand for infrastructure, labor and land use in specific geographical areas of the State.

The firm of R.M. Towill, Corp. conducted the Economic and Environmental Assessment Modeling Component. R.M. Towill Corp. was established in 1930 and provides consulting services in planning, civil and environmental engineering, surveying, photogrammerty, project management and environmental services. Project Manager for R.M. Towill is Mr. James Yamamoto.

The firm Progressive Analytics, Inc. (PAI) providing primary model development, calibration, geographical analysis, and developed conclusions and recommendations. Drs. Karl E. Kim and Denise E Konan headed PAI’s project team. Dr. Kim is Professor of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Hawaii. Dr. Konan is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hawaii and, more recently, acting Chancellor of the UH Manoa campus.