Research & Economic Analysis

Hawai‘i’s major economic indicators were largely positive in the second quarter of 2025. The civilian labor force, wage and salary jobs, visitor arrivals, government contracts awarded, and private building permit authorizations increased. However, State general fund tax revenues decreased due to reduced income tax revenues.

In the second quarter of 2025, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawai‘i increased 57,315 or 2.4 percent and the average daily visitor census increased 4,352 or 1.9 percent from the same quarter of 2024.

 In the second quarter of 2025, the construction sector added 1,200 jobs or 3.1 percent compared with the same quarter of 2024, while the permit value for private construction increased $308.4 million or 24.7 percent.

  Government contracts awarded in the second quarter of 2025 increased $281.4 million or 62.0 percent compared to the same quarter of 2024. According to the most recent data available, the contracting tax base increased 18.7 percent or $594.2 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

In the second quarter of 2025, State general fund tax revenues decreased $38.1 million or 1.4 percent over the same period of 2024.  The state general excise tax revenue increased $83.8 million or 7.5 percent, the transient accommodations tax (TAT) increased $2.2 million or 1.1 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues decreased $31.1 million or 12.4 percent, and the net individual income tax revenues decreased $85.4 million or 7.8 percent.  In the first half of 2025, State general fund tax revenues decreased $150.8 million or 3.0 percent compared to same period of the previous year.

   Labor market conditions were positive.  In the second quarter of 2025, the civilian labor force increased 8,950 or 1.3 percent from the same quarter of 2024. Civilian employment increased 9,350 or 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the second quarter of 2024. Non-agricultural wage and salary jobs increased by 14,800 jobs or 2.3 percent from the second quarter of 2024.

The job increase in the second quarter of 2025 was due to job increases in both the government and private sectors. The private sector added about 13,400 non-agricultural jobs compared to second quarter of 2024.  Most private sector industries added jobs in the quarter. The number of jobs increased the most in Health Care and Social Assistance, which gained 3,500 jobs or 4.6 percent; followed by Food Services and Drinking Places, which added 3,400 jobs or 5.1 percent; Accommodations, which gained 1,300 jobs or 3.3 percent;  Construction, which gained 1,200 jobs or 3.1 percent; and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, which added 1,100 jobs or 8.1 percent in the quarter. The Government sector gained 1,400 jobs or 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024.  The Federal Government lost 1,200 jobs or 3.4 percent, the State Government added 2,200 jobs or 3.0 percent, and the Local Government added 400 jobs or 2.1 percent, compared to the second quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2025, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,199 million or 4.6 percent, from the same quarter of 2024.  In 2024, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,362 million or 4.9 percent from the previous year.  In the first quarter of 2025, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $1,313 million or 1.5 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  In 2024, total annualized real GDP increased $1,666 million or 1.9 percent from the previous year.

 In the first quarter of 2025, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,443.7 million or 4.9 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Health Care and Social Assistance; followed by Transportation and Warehousing, and Construction.  During the first quarter of 2025, total government earnings increased $773.0 million or 4.1 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  Earnings from the federal government increased $330.9 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $442.1 million in the quarter.

     In the first half of 2025, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent from the same period in 2024. This is 0.3 percentage points above the 2.6 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U in the first half of 2025. It is lower than the 4.7 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the first half of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. In the first half of 2025, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Food and Beverages    (4.6 percent), followed by Transportation (4.0 percent), Apparel (3.8 percent), Other Goods and Services     (3.0 percent), Housing (2.6 percent), Medical Care (2.5 percent), and Recreation (2.2 percent). The Honolulu CPI-U decreased in Education and Communication (1.2 percent) compared to the first half of 2024.