Outlook for the Economy
2nd Quarter 2024 Report
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The number of civilians employed in Maui County during the first four months of 2024 fell 7.4 percent compared to the same period in 2023. Maui County’s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 5.2 percent in the first four months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. The statewide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 2.9 percent between January and April 2024, 0.1 percent higher than the unemployment rate over the same period in 2023.
The value of private building permits showed an increase of 34.8 percent or $393.8 million during the first four months of 2024 compared with the same period of the previous year. The value for the residential permits increased by $181.7 million or 39.5 percent from the same period in the previous year. The value for the additions & alterations category increased by $265.1 million or 57.2 percent. The value of commercial & industrial building permits decreased by $53.0 million or 25.4 percent during the same period.
State general excise tax revenue, a comprehensive measure of economic activity, remained flat during the first four months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
Hawaii’s real gross domestic product (GDP), in the most recent estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, released March 29, 2024), shows an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and reflects a recovery of 97.6 percent from the same period in 2019.
At the national level, U.S. real GDP growth has been stronger than expected. The most recent estimate by BEA (released May 30, 2024) of U.S. real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 3.1 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The economy appears to be slowing, however, with U.S. real GDP growing at 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023. The most recent economic projections by the top 50 economic forecasting organizations, published in Blue Chip Economic Indicators (May 10, 2024), indicate that U.S. economic growth is expected to be 2.4 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025. For Hawaii, DBEDT estimates that Hawaii’s real GDP will increase by 1.3 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects 2.1 percent growth in 2025 and in 2026, and 1.8 percent growth in 2027.
Total visitor arrivals are projected to be 9.6 million visitors in 2024, about the same as the 2023 level and lower than previously forecast. Total visitor arrivals are projected to increase to 9.9 million in 2025, 10.2 million in 2026, and 10.4 million in 2027. Total visitor spending is estimated to increase 0.7 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects an increase of 4.3 percent in 2025, 4.0 percent in 2026, and 3.5 percent in 2027.
Non-agriculture payroll jobs are estimated to increase 0.6 percent in 2024. The forecast projects an increase of 1.7 percent in 2025, 1.4 percent in 2026, and 1.2 percent in 2027.
Overall for 2024, the average annual unemployment rate is estimated to be 2.8 percent. The forecast projects a decrease to 2.6 percent in 2025, 2.5 percent in 2026, and 2.4 percent in 2027.
Nominal personal income is estimated to increase by 3.8 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects an increase of 4.1 percent in 2025, 4.0 percent in 2026 and 3.8 percent in 2027.
Hawaii’s consumer inflation rate, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, is estimated to increase 3.6 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects an increase of 2.8 percent in 2025, 2.5 percent in 2026, and 2.3 percent in 2027.
Hawaii’s population is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1 percent in 2024, remain stable in 2025, and increase by 0.1 percent in 2026 and by 0.2 percent in 2027.
| Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 ¹ | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Forecast | |||||
| Total population (thousands) ² | 1,439 | 1,435 | 1,434 | 1,434 | 1,436 | 1,438 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) ³ | 9,234 | 9,645 | 9,644 | 9,922 | 10,169 | 10,380 |
| Visitor days (thousands) ³ | 85,240 | 86,340 | 85,755 | 87,843 | 89,687 | 91,171 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) ³ | 19,800 | 20,967 | 21,105 | 22,016 | 22,890 | 23,687 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 316.1 | 326.0 | 337.8 | 347.3 | 355.9 | 364.0 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 88,973 | 93,501 | 97,010 | 101,008 | 105,036 | 109,064 |
| Real personal income (millions of 2017$) | 69,266 | 70,876 | 71,569 | 72,728 | 73,959 | 75,240 |
| Personal income deflator (2017=100) | 128.5 | 131.9 | 135.5 | 138.9 | 142.0 | 145.0 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 618.1 | 632.2 | 635.9 | 646.8 | 655.8 | 663.7 |
| Civilian unemployment rate | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) | 101,083 | 108,023 | 112,580 | 117,466 | 122,545 | 127,231 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of 2017$) | 85,211 | 86,888 | 88,033 | 89,878 | 91,753 | 93,442 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2017=100) | 118.6 | 124.3 | 127.9 | 130.7 | 133.6 | 136.2 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Visitor arrivals | 36.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Visitor days | 30.5 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Visitor expenditures | 50.5 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 6.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Personal income | 0.0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Real personal income | -4.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Personal income deflator | 5.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Civilian unemployment rate 4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Gross domestic product | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Real gross domestic product | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Gross domestic product deflator | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
2/ July 1 count.
3/ Visitors who came to Hawaii by air and by cruise ship. Expenditures includes supplementary business expenditures.
4/ Absolute change from previous year.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, June 6, 2024.