Outlook QSER 2026Q1 via Gemini Enterprise
| Economic Indicators | 2024 | 2025 1/ | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Actual | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | |
| Total population (thousands) 2/ | 1,435.0 | 1,432.8 | 1,433.2 | 1,435.1 | 1,436.8 | 1,438.7 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) 3/ | 9,701.5 | 9,643.0 | 9,724.5 | 9,816.0 | 9,907.9 | 10,001.8 |
| Visitor days (thousands) 3/ | 84,516.0 | 83,745.2 | 84,167.1 | 84,807.4 | 85,478.4 | 86,168.7 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) 3/ | 20,719.7 | 21,863.1 | 22,422.2 | 23,064.8 | 23,735.6 | 24,394.9 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 340.2 | 348.9 | 358.7 | 367.7 | 376.6 | 385.3 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 102,703.8 | 107,716.8 | 112,481.7 | 117,358.8 | 122,405.3 | 127,628.3 |
| Real personal income (millions of constant 2017$) | 75,592.6 | 77,194.7 | 78,676.1 | 80,184.9 | 81,728.8 | 83,297.4 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 639.0 | 651.2 | 656.7 | 662.7 | 667.8 | 672.9 |
| Civilian unemployment rate (%) | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) | 117,627.4 | 124,172.3 | 129,788.9 | 135,403.1 | 141,419.2 | 147,582.7 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of chained 2017$) | 91,878.0 | 94,280.3 | 95,897.4 | 97,576.4 | 99,410.6 | 101,275.2 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2017=100) | 128.0 | 131.7 | 135.3 | 138.8 | 142.3 | 145.7 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Visitor arrivals | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Visitor days | -2.2 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Visitor expenditures | -0.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Personal income | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Real personal income | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Civilian unemployment rate 4/ | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Gross domestic product | 5.3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Real gross domestic product | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Gross domestic product deflator | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
1/ Some of the indicators are preliminary or estimated such as visitor expenditures, personal income and gross domestic product.
2/ July 1 count.
3/ Visitors who came to Hawai‘i by air and by cruise ship. Expenditures includes supplementary business expenditures.
4/ Absolute change from previous year.
Source: Hawai‘i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, March 12, 2026.
