Outlook for the Economy
1st Quarter 2026 Report
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The civilian labor force totaled 690,050 in December 2025, an increase of 8,050 people or 1.2 percent compared with December 2024. Total non-agricultural wage and salary employment reached 661,800 jobs in December 2025, an increase of 1.0 percent from December 2024. The unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 2.2 percent in December 2025, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 2.8 percent recorded in December 2024.
Hawai‘i’s personal income increased in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, with most income components rising except Medicaid and state unemployment insurance benefits. Per capita personal income was $74,830, a 4.6 percent increase from the third quarter of 2024.
Inflation, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.3 percent in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, below the national average increase of 2.8 percent. In January 2026, the Honolulu CPI-U rose 2.4 percent compared to the same month of 2025.
Total visitor expenditures rose 5.7 percent in 2025 compared to 2024, while visitor arrivals fell 0.6 percent. In January 2026, Hawai‘i recorded 874,358 visitor arrivals, an increase of 10.4 percent compared with January 2025. Expenditures totaled $2.3 billion, 19.0 percent higher than in January 2025.
Construction industry payroll jobs increased 6.9 percent the fourth quarter of 2025 compared the same period in 2024. Government contracts awarded increased 24.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 while capital improvement spending declined slightly during the quarter. Private residential permits for 2025 were up 3.1 percent and private commercial and industrial permits increased 26.7 percent compared to 2024. Housing market conditions showed mixed trends in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median price of single-family homes in Honolulu increased modestly to $1.1 million while condominium prices declined. In February 2026, the median prices for single-family homes and condominiums increased by 1.7 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.
At the national level, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.5 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027 according to the March 2026 Blue Chip Ecoonomic Indicators report. Growth prospects for major international economies remain more moderate. DBEDT estimates that Hawai‘i’s real GDP will increase 1.7 percent in 2026, 1.8 percent in 2027, and 1.9 percent each year in 2028 and 2029.
Visitor arrivals are projected to increase by 0.8 percent in 2026 and to grow around 0.9 percent each year between 2027 and 2029. Visitor spending is projected to be $22.4 billion in 2026 and reach $24.4 billion in 2029.
Inflation is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2026, slightly higher than the projected U.S. consumer inflation rate of 2.7 percent for the same year. Hawai‘i consumer inflation is expected to decrease to 2.3 percent in 2029.
Non-agriculture payroll jobs are estimated to grow 0.9 percent each year in 2026 and 2027, and 0.8 percent each year in 2028 and 2029.
The state unemployment rate is expected to be 2.6 percent in 2026, improving to 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2028, and to 2.4 percent in 2029.
Personal income is estimated to increase 4.4 percent in 2026, and to increase 4.3 percent each year between 2027 and 2029.
Hawai‘i’s population growth is expected to remain flat in 2026 and increase by 0.1 percent each year between 2027 and 2029.
| Economic Indicators | 2024 | 2025 ¹ | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Forecast | |||||
| Total population (thousands) ² | 1,435 | 1,433 | 1,433 | 1,435 | 1,437 | 1,439 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) ³ | 9,701 | 9,643 | 9,725 | 9,816 | 9,908 | 10,002 |
| Visitor days (thousands) ³ | 84,516 | 83,745 | 84,167 | 84,807 | 85,478 | 86,169 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) ³ | 20,720 | 21,863 | 22,422 | 23,065 | 23,736 | 24,395/td> |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 340.2 | 348.9 | 358.7 | 367.7 | 376.6 | 385.3 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 102,704 | 107,717 | 112,482 | 117,359 | 122,405 | 127,628 |
| Real personal income (millions of constant 2017$) | 75,593 | 77,195 | 78,676 | 80,185 | 81,729 | 83,297 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 639.0 | 651.2 | 656.7 | 662.7 | 667.8 | 672.9 |
| Civilian unemployment rate (%) | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) | 117,627 | 124,172 | 129,789 | 135,403 | 141,419 | 147,583 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of chained 2017$) | 91,878 | 94,280 | 95,897 | 97,576 | 99,411 | 101,275 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2017=100) | 128.0 | 131.7 | 135.3 | 138.8 | 142.3 | 145.7 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Visitor arrivals | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Visitor days | -2.2 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Visitor expenditures | -0.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Personal income | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Real personal income | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Civilian unemployment rate 4 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Gross domestic product | 5.3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Real gross domestic product | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Gross domestic product deflator | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
2/ July 1 count.
3/ Visitors who came to Hawai i by air and by cruise ship. Expenditures includes supplementary business expenditures.
4/ Absolute change from previous year.
Source: Hawai i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, March 12, 2026.
