Research & Economic Analysis

1st Quarter 2024 Report

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The August 2023 Maui wildfires continued to impact the state’s economy through the fourth quarter of 2023. Although Hawaii’s economic recovery was strong during the first 7 months of 2023, economic activity slowed significantly after the Maui wildfires. Maui County has been impacted the most, especially in tourism. Visitor arrivals to Maui County decreased 41.4 percent and visitor expenditures declined 31.3 percent during the last 5 months of 2023, compared with the same period in 2022. Visitor arrivals to the state decreased by 3.7 percent and total visitor expenditures were reduced by 4.8 percent in the five month period following the wildfires, compared to the same period in 2022.

The number of civilians employed in Maui County during the last five months of 2023 fell 3.1 percent compared to the same period in 2022. Maui County’s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 2.7 percent points from the same quarter in 2022. The statewide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, 0.7 percent lower than the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The total value of private building permits declined by 14.5 percent in the last 5 months of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. The permit value for commercial and industrial permits increased by 148.0 percent while the value of residential permits declined by 32.9 percent and the value of additions and alterations decreased by 22.2 percent.

State general excise tax revenue, a comprehensive measure of economic activity, increased by 0.6 percent during the last 5 months of 2023, compared to the same period in 2022.

Hawaii’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022 and reflects a recovery of 97.7 percent from the same period in 2019.

At the national level, U.S. real GDP growth has been stronger than expected. Although the U.S. economy was initially forecast to grow at 0.5 percent in 2023, the most recent estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (released February 28, 2024) indicates that U.S. real GDP grew at 2.5 percent in 2023 compared to 2022. The most recent economic projections by the top 50 economic forecasting organizations, published in Blue Chip Economic Indicators (February 9, 2024), indicate that U.S. economic growth is expected to be 2.1 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025. DBEDT estimates that Hawaii’s real GDP will increase by 1.5 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects 1.9 percent growth in 2025, 2.1 percent in 2026, and 2.2 percent in 2027.

Visitor arrivals are projected to be 9.8 million visitors in 2024, an increase of 1.4 percent from the 2022 level and about the same as previously projected. Visitor arrivals are projected to increase to 10.0 million in 2025, 10.2 million in 2026, and 10.4 million in 2027. Visitor spending is estimated to increase 2.2 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects an increase of 3.9 percent in 2025, 3.4 percent in 2026, and 3.2 percent in 2027.

Non-agriculture payroll jobs are estimated to increase 1.4 percent in 2024. The forecast projects increases of 1.6 percent in 2025 and in 2026, followed by an increase of 1.4 percent in 2027.

The state unemployment rate is expected to be at 2.8 percent in 2024 and will improve to 2.6 percent in 2025, 2.4 percent in 2026, and 2.3 percent in 2027.

Nominal personal income is estimated to increase by 3.8 percent in 2024. The forecast then projects an increase of 3.9 percent in 2025, 4.0 percent in 2026, and 4.1 percent in 2027.

Hawaii’s consumer inflation rate, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, is estimated to increase 2.8 percent in 2024, which is higher than the projected U.S. consumer inflation rate of 2.6 percent for the same year. The forecast then projects Hawaii’s consumer inflation to increase by 2.5 percent in 2025, 2.4 percent in 2026, and 2.2 percent in 2027.

Hawaii’s population growth is expected to be flat in 2024, followed by an increase by 0.1 percent in 2025, and increases of 0.2 percent in 2026 and in 2027.