Research & Economic Analysis

As measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), Hawaii’s economy rebounded to exceed pre-pandemic (fourth quarter of 2019) levels by 0.7 percent as of the second quarter of 2024. While tourism-related sectors (accommodation, transportation, retail trade, recreation, and food services) only recovered to 93 percent of pre-pandemic levels, non-tourism sectors have shown firm growth. Based on the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s real GDP grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023. Hawaii’s nominal personal income grew by 5.4 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023.

During the first 10 months of 2024, total visitor arrivals fell by 0.7 percent from the same period in 2023. U.S. visitor arrivals by air fell 2.9 percent while international visitor arrivals rose 7.0 percent. Visitor expenditures, measured in current dollars, decreased by 1.0 percent year to date through October 2024.

The construction industry continues to boom. Construction payroll jobs reached 43,300 (not seasonally adjusted) in October 2024, a record high level in Hawaii’s history. The value of private building permits increased 28.6 percent during the first ten months of 2024. During the first half of 2024, the contracting tax base totaled $6.5 billion or a 14.8 percent increase from the same period in 2023. The $9.8 billion government contracts awarded in calendar years 2022 and 2023 will have lasting effects for several years into the future.

Hawaii home sales increased 18 percent during the first nine months of 2024 as compared with the same period in 2023. Sales of single-family homes increased 14.6 percent and sales of condominium homes increased 21.2 percent. The average sale prices of single-family homes and condominium homes both increased during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Hawaii’s labor force (not seasonally adjusted) for the first ten months of 2024 decreased 0.9 percent compared to the same period in 2023. Hawaii’s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) averaged 3.0 percent during the first ten months of 2024, ranking eighth lowest among the 50 states.

Hawaii’s consumer inflation, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, was at 4.2 percent in September 2024, 2.0 percentage points higher than Hawaii’s inflation rate in September 2023 and 1.8 percentage points higher than the national inflation rate of 2.4 percent.

At the national level, the most recent (November 2024) Blue Chip Economic Indicators report, the consensus of 50 economic forecasting organizations, projected the U.S. economy to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024, and 2.1 percent in 2025. DBEDT estimates that the Hawaii’s real GDP will increase by 1.6 percent in 2024, 2.0 percent in 2025, 2.0 percent in 2026, and 1.8 percent in 2027.

Visitor arrivals are projected to decrease by 0.6 percent in 2024 and will improve starting in 2025 as the Japanese visitor market recovery accelerates. Full recovery in arrivals will not happen until 2027 when 10.4 million visitors will come to the state. Visitor spending is projected to be $20.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to $23.2 billion by 2027.

Non-agriculture payroll jobs are expected to increase by 0.9 percent in 2024, 1.2 percent in 2025, 1.2 percent in 2026, and 1.0 percent in 2027. A full recovery of non-agriculture payroll jobs is expected to occur in 2027 when the total will reach 659,800 jobs.

The state unemployment rate is expected to be 2.9 percent in 2024 and will improve to 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027.
Personal income is expected to grow at 4.7 percent in 2024, 4.4 percent in 2025, 4.1 percent in 2026, and 4.1 percent in 2027.

As measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, inflation is expected to be at 4.3 percent in 2024, which is higher than the projected U.S. consumer inflation rate of 2.9 percent for the same year. Hawaii consumer inflation is expected to decrease to 2.6 percent by 2027.

Hawaii’s population is expected to decrease by 0.2 percent in 2024, and then increase by 0.1 percent each year in 2025, 2026, and 2027.

1/  July 1 count.
2/  Visitors who came to Hawaii by air and by cruise ship. Expenditures includes supplementary business expenditures.
3/  Absolute change from previous year.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, December 4, 2024.