Research & Economic Analysis

Based on available data, Hawai‘i’s major economic indicators were mixed in the third quarter of 2025. Visitor arrivals and days decreased compared to the same period in the previous year while visitor spending increased. State general fund tax revenues decreased. Private building authorizations for Honolulu decreased while authorizations increased for Maui County and Hawai‘i County. Third quarter of 2025 data on the labor force and jobs and Kaua‘i residential permits were not available at the time of publication.

In the third quarter of 2025, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawai‘i decreased 78,900 or 3.2 percent and the average daily visitor census decreased 6,814 or 3.0 percent from the same quarter of 2024. Visitor expenditures, however, increased by $84.7 million or 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of last year.

In the second quarter of 2025 (latest data available), the construction sector added 1,200 jobs or 3.1 percent compared with the same quarter of 2024.  The contracting tax base increased 7.1 percent or $236.7 million in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Government contracts awarded in the third quarter of 2025 decreased $1,936.0 million or 90.9 percent compared to the same quarter of 2024.

In the third quarter of 2025, State general fund tax revenues decreased $402.7 million or 14.7 percent over the same period of 2024. The state general excise tax revenue increased $28.4 million or 2.4 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues increased $28.6 million or 36.7 percent, the transient accommodations tax (TAT) increased $2.6 million or 1.2 percent, and the net individual income tax revenues decreased $119.2 million or 13.9 percent. In the first three quarters of 2025, State general fund tax revenues decreased $553.5 million or 7.1 percent compared to same period of the previous year.

Labor market conditions in the second quarter of 2025 (latest data available) were positive. The civilian labor force increased 8,950 or 1.3 percent from the same quarter of 2024. Civilian employment increased 9,350 or 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the second quarter of 2024. Non-agricultural wage and salary jobs increased by 14,800 jobs or 2.3 percent from the second quarter of 2024.

The job increase in the second quarter of 2025 was due to job increases in both the government and private sectors. The private sector added about 13,400 non-agricultural jobs compared to second quarter of 2024. The Government sector gained 1,400 jobs or 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024.  The Federal Government lost 1,200 jobs or 3.4 percent, the State Government added 2,200 jobs or 3.0 percent, and the Local Government added 400 jobs or 2.1 percent, compared to the second quarter of 2024.

In the second quarter of 2025, total annualized nominal GDP increased $6,617 million or 5.7 percent, from the same quarter of 2024.  In the first half of 2025, total annualized nominal GDP increased $6,964 million or 6.0 percent from the previous year.  In the second quarter of 2025, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $2,314 million or 2.5 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  In the first half of 2025, total annualized real GDP increased $2,702 million or 3.0 percent from the previous year.

In the second quarter of 2025, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,349.7 million or 4.7 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Health Care and Social Assistance; followed by Transportation and Warehousing, Construction, and Finance and Insurance. During the second quarter of 2025, total government earnings increased $1,893.6 million or 9.7 percent from the same quarter of 2024.  Earnings from the federal government increased $298.6 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $1,595.0 million in the quarter.

In the first half of 2025, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent from the same period in 2024. This is 0.3 percentage points above the 2.6 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U in the first half of 2025. It is lower than the 4.7 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the first half of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. In the first half of 2025, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Food and Beverages (4.6 percent), followed by Transportation (4.0 percent), Apparel (3.8 percent), Other Goods and Services (3.0 percent), Housing (2.6 percent), Medical Care (2.5 percent), and Recreation (2.2 percent). The Honolulu CPI-U decreased in Education and Communication (1.2 percent) compared to the first half of 2024.