Research & Economic Analysis

Hawai‘i’s major economic indicators were mixed in the fourth quarter of 2025. Wage and salary jobs, earnings, general excise tax revenues, visitor expenditures, and transient accommodation tax revenues increased while the inflation eased. However, visitor arrivals, private building authorizations, and net income tax, both individual and corporate, decreased.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawai‘i decreased 75,853 or 3.2 percent and the daily visitor census decreased 8,109 or 3.6 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, visitor expenditures for visitors arriving by air increased $435.3 million or 8.5 percent from a year earlier.

The construction sector gained 2,700 jobs or 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the permit value for private construction decreased $1,045.2 million or 61.8 percent; however, government contracts awarded increased $111.0 million or 24.7 percent, compared with the same quarter of 2024. According to the most recent excise tax base data available, the contracting tax base decreased $523.5 million or 13.2 percent in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the contracting tax base increased $307.5 million or 2.9 percent compared with the same period of the prior year.

In the third quarter of 2025 (most recent data available), State general fund tax revenues decreased $402.7 million or 14.7 percent over the same period of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the state general excise tax revenue increased $114.6 million or 11.0 percent, the net individual income tax revenues decreased $65.4 million or 7.8 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues decreased $39.4 million or 29.8 percent, and the transient accommodations tax (TAT) increased $5.0 million or 2.9 percent. Through the third quarter of 2025, State general fund tax revenues decreased $553.5 million, or 7.1 percent compared to the previous year.

Labor market conditions generally improved. In the third quarter of 2025 (the most recent quarterly data available), the civilian labor force averaged 686,250 people, an increase of 4,150 people or 0.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Hawai‘i’s non-agricultural wage and salary jobs averaged 657,800 jobs, an increase of 9,900 jobs or 1.5 percent.

The job increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 was due to an increase in private sector jobs. In this quarter, the private sector added about 12,600 non-agricultural jobs compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The majority of the private sector industries added jobs in the quarter. The number of jobs increased the most in Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 3,700 jobs or 4.8 percent, followed by Food Services and Drinking Places, which added 3,300 jobs or 4.9 percent, Construction, which added 2,700 jobs or 6.9 percent, Accommodation, which added 1,200 jobs or 3.0 percent, and Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, which added 1,000 jobs or 7.2 percent in the quarter. The Government sector lost 2,700 jobs or 2.1 percent. The Federal Government lost 3,600 jobs or 10.1 percent, the State Government added 500 jobs or 0.7 percent, and the Local Government added 300 jobs or 1.6 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

In the third quarter of 2025, total annualized nominal GDP increased $6,735 million or 5.7 percent, from the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, total annualized nominal GDP increased $6,888 million or 5.9 percent from the same period of the previous year. In the third quarter of 2025, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $2,036 million or 2.2 percent from the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, total annualized real GDP increased $2,480 million or 2.7 percent from the same period of the previous year.

In the third quarter of 2025, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,039.8 million or 4.0 percent from the third quarter of 2024. In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Health Care and Social Assistance, followed by Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Construction; Retail Trade; and Administration and Waste Management Services. During the third quarter of 2025, total government earnings increased $1,064.4 million or 5.3 percent from the same quarter of 2024. Earnings from the federal government increased $377.3 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $687.1 million in the quarter.

In the second half of 2025, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.3 percent from the same period in 2024. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the 2.8 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U. It is also lower than the 4.0 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the second half of 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year. In the second half of 2025, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Food and Beverages (3.8 percent), followed by Recreation (3.3 percent), Medical Care (3.1 percent), Apparel (2.2 percent), Housing (2.1 percent), Transportation (2.0 percent), and Education and Communication (0.7 percent).