Research & Economic Analysis

1st Quarter 2025 Report

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Hawai‘i’s major economic indicators were mixed in the fourth quarter of 2024. Visitor arrivals, wage and salary jobs, private building authorizations, and state general fund tax revenues increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. However, inflation was still relatively high and the civilian labor force, state general excise tax revenues, transient accommodations tax revenues, and government contracts awarded decreased.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawai‘i increased 124,662 or 5.5 percent and the daily visitor census increased 5,380 or 2.4 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

The construction sector gained 3,400 jobs or 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the same quarter of 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the permit value for private construction increased $789.8 million or 87.6 percent; however, government contracts awarded decreased $309.7 million or 44.1 percent, compared with the same quarter of 2023.

According to the most recent excise tax base data available, the contracting tax base increased $888.2 million or 28.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. For the first three quarters of 2024, the contracting tax base increased $1,730.6 million or 19.8 percent compared with the same period of the prior year.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, State general fund tax revenues increased $117.0 million or 5.3 percent over the same period of 2023. The state general excise tax revenue decreased $30.6 million or 2.8 percent, the net individual income tax revenues increased $95.6 million or 13.0 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues increased $40.1 million or 43.5 percent, and the transient accommodations tax (TAT) decreased $9.1 million or 5.0 percent. In 2024, State general fund tax revenues increased $619.6 million or 6.5 percent compared to the previous year.

Labor market conditions were mixed. The civilian labor force averaged 673,300 people, a decrease of 1,350 people or 0.2 percent. Hawai‘i’s non-agricultural wage and salary jobs averaged 650,800 jobs, an increase of 10,400 jobs or 1.6 percent.

The job increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 was due to job increases in both the private sector and the government sector. In this quarter, the private sector added about 8,600 non-agricultural jobs compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The majority of the private sector industries added jobs in the quarter. The number of jobs increased the most in Construction, which added 3,400 jobs or 8.9%, followed by Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 2,100 jobs or 2.8 percent, Food Services and Drinking Places, which added 1,900 jobs or 2.9 percent, Professional and Business Services, which added 1,400 jobs or 2.0 percent, and Accommodations, which added 700 jobs or 1.8 percent in the quarter. The Government sector added 1,800 jobs or 0.4 percent. The Federal Government added 200 jobs or 0.6 percent, the State Government added 1,400 jobs or 1.9 percent, and the Local Government added 300 jobs or 1.6 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

In the third quarter of 2024, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,482 million or 4.9 percent, from the third quarter of 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,364 million or 4.9 percent from the same period of the previous year. In the third quarter of 2024, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $1,881 million or 2.1 percent from the third quarter of 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, total annualized real GDP increased $1,672 million or 1.9 percent from the same period of the previous year.

In the third quarter of 2024, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,803.1 million or 5.9 percent from the third quarter of 2023. In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Health Care and Social Assistance, followed by Construction; Accommodation and Food Services; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Other Services, except Public Administration. During the third quarter of 2024, total government earnings increased $2,002.6 million or 10.8 percent from the same quarter of 2023. Earnings from the federal government increased $656.6 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $1,346.0 million in the quarter.

In the second half of 2024, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 4.0 percent from the same period in 2023. This is 1.3 percentage points higher than the 2.7 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U. It is also higher than the 2.9 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the second half of 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year. In the second half of 2024, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Housing (6.2 percent), followed by Apparel (4.5 percent), Food and Beverages (3.4 percent), Recreation (3.3 percent), Medical Care (1.3 percent), Transportation (1.2 percent), and Other Goods and Services (0.04 percent). The CPI-U in Education and Communication decreased 1.4 percent compared to the second half of 2023.