Research & Economic Analysis

4th Quarter 2024 Report

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Hawaii’s major economic indicators were mixed in the third quarter of 2024. The labor force, employment, and private building authorizations decreased while non-agricultural wage and salary jobs, government contracts awarded, State general fund tax revenues, and visitor arrivals increased compared to the third quarter of 2023. The August 8, 2023 Maui wildfires occurred during the third quarter of 2023, with immediate impacts on tourism.

In the third quarter of 2024, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawaii increased 88,324 or 3.8 percent and the daily visitor census increased 1,449 or 0.6 percent from the same quarter of 2023.

In the third quarter of 2024, the construction sector added 4,600 jobs or 12.0 percent compared with the same quarter of 2023, while the permit value for private construction decreased $3.5 million or 0.3 percent. Government contracts awarded in the third quarter of 2024 increased $1,835.1 million or 621.0 percent compared to the same quarter of 2023. According to the most recent data available, the contracting tax base increased 11.0 percent or $332.2 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter of 2023.

In the third quarter of 2024, State general fund tax revenues increased $448.0 million or 19.4 percent over the same period of 2023. The State general excise tax revenue increased $44.5 million or 4.0 percent, the net individual income tax revenues increased $66.6 million or 8.4 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues increased $12.5 million or 19.0 percent, and the transient accommodations tax decreased $7.1 million or 3.2 percent. In the first three quarters of 2024, State general fund tax revenues increased $512.2 million or 7.0 percent compared to same period of the previous year.

Labor market conditions were mixed. In the third quarter of 2024, the civilian labor force decreased 5,700 or 0.8 percent from the same quarter of 2023. Civilian employment decreased 6,050 or 0.9 percent. The unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, the same as in the third quarter of 2023. Non-agricultural wage and salary jobs increased by 6,200 jobs or 1.0 percent from the third quarter of 2023.

The job increase in the third quarter of 2024 was due to both private sector and government sector job increases. The number of non-agricultural jobs in the private sector increased by 4,500 compared to the third quarter of 2023. The number of jobs increased the most in Construction, which gained 4,600 jobs or 12.0 percent, followed by Health Care and Social Assistance, which gained 2,700 jobs or 3.6 percent in the quarter. The number of jobs decreased the most in Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities, which lost 1,500 jobs or 4.4 percent and Retail Trade, which lost 1,200 jobs or 1.8 percent in the quarter. The Government sector gained 1,700 jobs or 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of 2023. The Federal Government added 400 jobs or 1.1 percent, the State Government added 1,100 jobs or 1.7 percent, and the Local Government added 300 jobs or 1.6 percent, compared to the third quarter of 2023.

In the second quarter of 2024, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,218 million or 4.8 percent, from the same quarter of 2023. In the first half of 2024, total annualized nominal GDP increased $5,305 million or 4.9 percent from the previous year. In the second quarter of 2024, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $1,521 million or 1.7 percent from the same quarter of 2023. In the first half of 2024, total annualized real GDP increased $1,567 million or 1.8 percent from the previous year.

In the second quarter of 2024, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,581.7 million or 5.4 percent from the same quarter of 2023. In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Construction; followed by Accommodation and Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical services; and Health Care and Social Assistance. During the second quarter of 2024, total government earnings increased $1,304.0 million or 7.3 percent from the same quarter of 2023. Earnings from the federal government increased $856.5 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $447.4 million in the quarter.

In the first half of 2024, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above the 3.2 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U. It is also higher than the 3.4 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the first half of 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year. In the first half of 2024, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Housing (8.0 percent), followed by Food and Beverages (4.1 percent), Other Goods and Services (3.9 percent), and Recreation (3.4 percent). The Honolulu CPI-U decreased in Apparel (2.6 percent), Education and Communication (1.1 percent), and Transportation (0.3 percent) compared to the first half of 2023.