Research & Economic Analysis

2nd Quarter 2024 Report

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Hawaii’s major economic indicators were mixed in the first quarter of 2024. Wage and salary jobs, private building permit authorizations, and State general fund tax revenues increased. However, visitor arrivals and government contracts awarded decreased.

In the first quarter of 2024, the total number of visitors arriving by air to Hawaii decreased 59,149 or 2.5 percent and daily visitor census decreased 14,880 or 6.0 percent.

In the first quarter of 2024, the construction sector added 2,600 jobs or 6.9 percent compared with the same quarter of 2023, while the permit value for private construction increased $216.5 million or 27.4 percent. Government contracts awarded, however, decreased $2,803.4 million or 88.1 percent, compared with the same quarter of 2023. According to the most recent excise tax base data available, the contracting tax base increased $283.2 million or 10.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. For 2023 the contracting tax base increased $1,056.4 million or 9.8 percent compared with the previous year.

In the first quarter of 2024, State general fund tax revenues increased $31.4 million or 1.4 percent over the same period of 2023. The state general excise tax revenue increased $26.8 million or 2.4 percent, the transient accommodations tax (TAT) decreased $4.7 million or 2.0 percent, the net corporate income tax revenues increased $40.6 million or 115.3 percent, and the net individual income tax revenues decreased $28.9 million or 4.2 percent. In 2023, State general fund tax revenues increased $62.7 million or 0.7 percent compared to the previous year.

Labor market conditions were mixed. In the first quarter of 2024, Hawaii’s non-agricultural wage and salary jobs averaged 634,000 jobs, an increase of 3,500 jobs or 0.6 percent from the same quarter of 2023.

The job increase in the first quarter of 2024 was due to job increases in the government sector. In this quarter, the private sector lost about 900 non-agricultural jobs compared to the first quarter of 2023. The majority of private sector industries lost jobs in the quarter. The number of jobs decreased the most in Information, which lost 2,500 jobs or 26.3 percent, followed by Financial Activities, which lost 1,000 jobs or 3.6 percent, and Retail Trade, which lost 1,000 jobs or 1.5 percent. Private sector industries that added jobs compared to the first quarter of 2023 include Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction, which added 2,600 jobs or 6.9 percent, Healthcare and Social Assistance, which added 2,000 jobs or 2.7 percent, and Accommodations, which added 800 jobs or 2.1 percent, in the quarter. The Government sector added 4,400 jobs or 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of 2023. The Federal Government added 800 jobs or 2.3 percent, the State Government added 3,200 jobs or 4.7 percent, and the Local Government added 400 jobs or 2.2 percent, compared to the first quarter of 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, total annualized nominal GDP increased $4,728 million or 4.5 percent, from the same quarter of 2022. In 2023, total annualized nominal GDP increased $6,940 million or 6.9 percent from the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, total annualized real GDP (in chained 2017 dollars) increased $952 million or 1.1 percent from the same quarter of 2022. In 2023, total annualized real GDP increased $1,676 million or 2.0 percent from the previous year.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, total non-farm private sector annualized earnings increased $2,979.0 million or 4.7 percent from the same quarter of 2022. In dollar terms, the largest increase occurred in Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, followed by Construction, and Transportation and Warehousing. During the fourth quarter of 2023, total government earnings increased $1,248.6 million or 7.2 percent from the same quarter of 2022. Earnings from the federal government increased $790.1 million. Earnings from the state and local governments increased $458.5 million in the quarter.

In the second half of 2023, Honolulu’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent from the same period in 2022. This is 0.5 of a percentage point below the 3.4 percent increase for the U.S. average CPI-U. It is also lower than the 6.3 percent increase in the Honolulu CPI-U for the second half of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year. In the second half of 2023, the Honolulu CPI-U increased the most in Apparel (13.0 percent), followed by Other Goods and Services (8.3 percent), Recreation (6.7 percent), Medical Care (4.7 percent), Food and Beverages (4.3 percent), Housing (3.1 percent), and Education and Communication (1.2 percent) compared to the second half of 2022. Transportation decreased 2.6 percent in the second half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.